A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
