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Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.